Nate Silver Says the Republicans Are In Deep Trouble
With a capitol T which rhymes with P and that spells Putin. From the impending hearings leading to impeachment, to Trump’s Taxes trouble, Republicans will pay a dire price for obstructing investigations into Trump’s financial crimes. Also, Bernie checks in to say, Sign my petition: tell Congress to pass legislation that would prohibit military action against Iran without Congressional approval. They are truly in deep deep trouble like never before.
Dear MoveOn member,
Polling expert Nate Silver’s website FiveThirtyEight says that “the Senate will be competitive again” in 2020.1
- Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is only three points ahead of a generic Democratic opponent.2 And more than 60% of the voters in McConnell’s home state of Kentucky are saying that “it’s time for someone new” to represent the state.3
- Colorado Senator Cory Gardner is “arguably the most endangered Republican senator running for re-election in 2020”.4 A poll shows him losing by eight points to a generic Democrat.5
- And in Arizona, astronaut and Democratic challenger Mark Kelly and far-right-wing Republican senator Martha McSally are TIED 44-45!6
In 2020, we absolutely must beat Donald Trump. And we won’t spare any resources to do that. However, if Republicans remain in charge of the Senate, we will not pass any progressive legislation even under a Democratic administration—and it’s quite likely that we’ll make no appointments to the Supreme Court either.
We’ve got to defeat Trump. And we also must take back the Senate. But the path to winning the Senate does not just go through the states that we will need to win to defeat Trump. And even in states where Trump will be competitive, going big in Senate races will require major additional resources.
MoveOn needs to make a big decision this month: Can we staff up to take back the Senate—without making cuts to our campaign to defeat Trump in 2020?
We’ve set a goal of raising $200,000 by June 30—the second-quarter fundraising deadline. If we can hit that goal, then we’ll know that we’ll have enough early support from MoveOn members to focus on taking back the Senate and White House in 2020.
If we don’t take back the Senate, the consequences will be catastrophic:
- Judges, including Supreme Court justices, who are appointed by a Democratic president will be dead on arrival. As McConnell says, “One of my proudest moments was when I looked Barack Obama in the eye and I said, ‘Mr. President, you will not fill the Supreme Court vacancy.'”7 So if you think that a Republican Senate won’t hold a Supreme Court seat open for an entire presidential term just because of quaint ideas like “tradition,” think again.
- Progressive legislation will die in a Republican Senate. A Green New Deal will go nowhere. Medicare for All will stall. A repeal of Trump’s tax increases on millions of middle-class Americans (which were used to fund cutting the taxes for the rich and corporations) will not happen. And protections for Dreamers, protections which are supported by more than 75% of voters? Those won’t go into effect. That bill has already passed in the House of Representatives, but McConnell hasn’t allowed the Senate to vote on it.
- And we’ll have no Senate firewall in the horrifying event that Trump is re-elected. To be clear, no 2020 race is a bigger priority for MoveOn than beating Trump. But there are no guarantees. If Trump is re-elected through the industrial Midwest (and yes, it absolutely could happen), then it’s still possible to take back the Senate by winning in other states. And, in that case, we will need a Democratic Senate more than ever.
Author From The Intelligence Community’s Classic Trump-Putin Book A Must-Read!
We have to flip just four seats to take back control of the Senate. It’s doable, if we have the resources and put in the work —but we have to start right now.
James, will you chip in and help us reach our goal, so that MoveOn can work to defeat Trump and take back the Senate in 2020?
Thanks for all you do.
–Nick, Rahna, Manny, Kelly, and the rest of the team
1. “The Senate Will Be Competitive Again In 2020, But Republicans Are Favored,” FiveThirtyEight, November 28, 2018
2. “Poll: 33% of Kentucky voters approve of McConnell,” The Hill, February 21, 2019
4. “The most vulnerable Republican senator in 2020,” Roll Call, March 5, 2019
5. “It’s Early, But Colorado’s Cory Gardner Has A Tough Road To Re-Election In 2020,” FiveThirtyEight, April 24, 2019
6. “Poll: McSally, Kelly tied in Arizona,” The Hill, May 13, 2019
7. “What Happened With Merrick Garland in 2016 And Why It Matters Now,” NPR, June 29, 2018
Trump Is In Deep Tax Trouble
The United States just came very close to attacking Iran.
Yesterday we learned that the United States came very close to striking targets inside Iran in response to the downing of a U.S. drone in the Persian Gulf.
Last week the White House announced thousands of additional troops would be sent to the Middle East in response to the alleged Iranian attack on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman.
Last month, the New York Times reported that the Pentagon had presented a plan to the White House that envisions sending as many as 120,000 troops to the region to fight Iran.
Mark my words. A war in Iran would make the Iraq war look like a walk in the park. It would be an unmitigated disaster.
If the United States were to attack Iran, Iran could respond with attacks on U.S. troops and on countries around the region. It would lead to the further destabilization of that region in a way that is unimaginable and would result in wars that would go on year after year and likely cost trillions of dollars.
Taking us into a war without Congressional authorization would be unconstitutional and illegal. The United States Congress must do everything it can to prevent this war. The Constitution is very clear: It is Congress, not the president, who decides when we go to war.
And it is long past time for my colleagues in Congress to reassert that authority.
Please add your name if you agree:
Sixteen years ago, the United States committed one of the worst foreign policy blunders in the history of our country by attacking Iraq. That war was sold to the American people based on a series of lies about weapons of mass destruction. One of the leading advocates for that war was John Bolton, who served as a member of the Bush administration, and is now Trump’s national security adviser. Incredibly, even today, Bolton is one of the few remaining people in the world who continues to believe that the Iraq war was a good idea.
That war led to the deaths of more than 4,400 American troops, with tens of thousands of American soldiers wounded, many severely, and hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians killed. It unleashed a wave of radicalism and destabilization across the region that we will be dealing with for many years to come. It was the biggest foreign policy disaster in American history.
Voices of dissent went unheeded in the lead-up to the Iraq war. They must be heeded now.
We also need the people themselves to speak up and make themselves heard. Earlier this year, we made history in Congress by passing, for the first time in forty years, a War Powers Resolution to withdraw the United States from an illegal and unauthorized war in Yemen.
We did this with the strong support of a trans-partisan grassroots coalition, with progressives and conservatives working together to bring sanity to our foreign policy. We need those same voices to make clear to the Congress and to the reflexively hawkish, interventionist foreign policy establishment here in Washington that we will not accept another American war in the Middle East.
If you agree that we must not allow Trump to go to war with Iran on his own, please add your name to my petition:
When we are in the White House, we will pursue a course that resolves conflicts peacefully, not through endless war.
Paid for by Bernie 2020