why opinion polls are unreliable

Political Campaign Opinion Polls Suck – This Is Why

Political Campaign Opinion Polls Suck!!
– This Is Why

During political campaign seasons we are inundated by opinion polls. Most of them SUCK! – This post is about why.

Do you still use a land line? If so do you also have a cell phone? Do you use one more than the other? Talk about a divided nation! Opinion polls make landline calls because they physically locate those whom they call.

You Can’t Rely On Political Opinion Polls.

When some application form asks for your credit score what does that mean? Not many folks can meaningfully give an answer. Likewise, voters don’t know what poll results mean. There are many parallels. There are multiple conflicting reporting agencies, It’s an unfair system, prone to manipulation. Good news is suppressed and bad news is amplified. Political credit goes up slowly and drops rapidly over the same indicator values. Fake polls are manufactured, designed to ensnare you and take advantage of your trust to shape opinion more than measure it.

polls often disagree depending on method

Political Polls Are Like Credit Scores

The credit reporting agencies are like the news reporting agencies. They are in competition to take advantage of captive audiences under perverse motives. They are not based on fairness and carry a lot more credibility and influence than they deserve.

Multiple Conflicting Reporting Agencies 

One of the complexities of credit scores is that there are multiple credit reporting agencies, not just Experian, Equifax, and TransUnion. Think ABC, NBC, and CBS. Each of these myriad agencies collects and reports opinion poll information differently, which can lead to variations in your candidate’s score. This discrepancy can be confusing and frustrating for consumers who may see different scores depending on which poll or polls a media outlet reports on.

The Unfair System

The credit scoring system is often criticized for being unfair. For instance, making a late payment can cause your credit score to drop significantly, sometimes by as much as 100 points. However, if you manage to get the creditor to remove the negative item, your score might only increase by a small fraction of what it lost. This discrepancy means that the system is more punitive than restorative, leaving credit consumers, or voters at a disadvantage.

Credit reporting agencies have been reigned in with regulation, giving us some recourse when treated unfairly. It’s called the Fair Credit Reporting Act. The agencies and Republican Party would like to see this protection removed. There is no such control to demand accuracy and accountability in political opinion polling, The Republican Party conspires with their media donors to manipulate elections.

Media bias in political opinion polls

Slow Climb, Rapid Fall

Another frustrating aspect of credit scores is how they respond to changes. Positive actions, such as making on-time payments, can slowly improve your score over time. However, negative actions, like a single late payment, can cause your score to plummet rapidly. This imbalance makes it challenging for consumers to maintain a good credit score, as it requires consistent positive behavior over a long period, while a single mistake can have immediate and disproportional consequences. Just as opinion polls do.

A Lagging Indicator

While the system has its flaws, being aware of how it works can help you mitigate your trust about polling reporting more effectively.

Political opinion polls are often considered lagging indicators for several reasons.
Polls generally measure public opinion at a specific point in time. They reflect the opinions, attitudes, and preferences of individuals surveyed during the period when the poll was conducted. Since political landscapes can shift rapidly due to news events, scandals, or policy changes, the information obtained from these polls might not accurately represent the current state of public sentiment.

There is typically a delay between when a poll is conducted and when its results are published. This can range from hours to days or even weeks. During this time, new information may arise that could significantly alter public opinion, rendering the poll results less relevant or even obsolete.

In credit reports, creditors don’t report on their credit accounts at the same day or frequency. It can take as long as three months for a positive change to appear on your credit report, leaving a negative item to do further harm in the meantime.

Polls rely on a sample of the population to infer the opinions of the whole. If the sample is not representative or if there is bias in the selection process, the results can lag true public opinion. For instance, if a poll over-represents a particular demographic that is not as engaged in the political process, it may not accurately reflect the broader electorate’s views. Limiting the pool of people to call by landline users is an example of built-in bias skewed away from the political opinions of younger demographics.

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Political campaigns are dynamic, with candidates’ fortunes rising and falling due to various factors such as debates, speeches, or campaign strategies. Polls can lag in capturing these rapid shifts because they are snapshots and not continuous real-time measurements.

Voters can be fickle, and their preferences can change over time. Polls may not always accurately predict the final outcome of an election because they cannot account for the multitude of factors that influence voter behavior, including last-minute decisions and changes in voter interest. Some people don’t take opinion pollsters seriously and give ironic, sarcastic, or just goofy answers.

Political campaign opinion polls may not fully capture the momentum of a political campaign. Sometimes, a candidate’s performance in the final days or weeks before an election can lead to a surge in support that isn’t reflected in earlier polling data.

There is a “Herding Effect” where there is a tendency among pollsters to adjust their methodologies to align with the results of other polls, which can create a herding effect where all polls start to look similar and fail to detect underlying shifts in public opinion. Valid polling data can get washed out of the sample because the polling agency consider them to be outliers.

The public’s perception caused by the bandwagon effect is one of the worst flaws of poll reportage. The publication of poll results can influence voters’ decisions. If a poll shows a candidate is significantly ahead, it might encourage bandwagon voting, where individuals vote for the perceived winner, potentially skewing actual election results. Conversely, a poll showing a candidate trailing might lead to a decrease in support as voters feel their preferred candidate cannot win.

The original sin of polling is human foible. People’s opinions are subject to unethical standards and are easily manipulated at different stages of analysis. On your typical, live interviewer polling session you can’t be sure your responses are recorded correctly, by accident or on purpose. The finished data set can be altered by processing errors and smoothing. Then the news agencies can manipulate the process through the selection of polls they report on.

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Response rates and survey methods reduce the sample size. The advent of technology has changed how people communicate, making it harder to get a representative sample. People are less likely to answer landline phones, and the rise of cellphones and the internet has introduced new challenges in reaching all segments of the population. Pollsters must continually adapt their methods to account for these changes, which can affect the reliability of their findings.

From survey calls on the landline to AI calls on the smart phone

I got a call that had the words “Potential Spam” where the caller name should be, usually I deal with it like spam. Then I answered one and it was a political opinion survey. The pollster collected some usual demographic information. He asked about my political alignment. Then came the push-pull poll questions where the questions were testing all the GOP talking points. My “Earth 1” perspective was audibly perplexing to the pollster. He tried to manipulate my opinions by feeding me a blurb before a set of questions.

Paid online surveys

I like to take political surveys on Survey Junkie for pay. One time the push-poll section was pumping the “No Names” scam. After the survey determined I wasn’t buying into the blurbs about No Names, the survey crashed, cheating me out of my reward for taking this survey. Republican dirty tricks.

Tilted Questions

Sometimes the poll results don’t match reality, but you don’t know it asked improper questions. That is because the polling questions are not revealed. The results of an opinion poll can be manipulated by how the questions are asked and what options are presented.

Poling for candidates is not just about asking questions and tallying responses. The way a question is framed, the options provided for answers, and even the order in which they are presented can significantly influence the outcome. This is where the concept of tilted questions comes into play. These are questions designed in such a way that they subtly guide the respondent towards a particular answer, thereby skewing the results in a predetermined direction.

This manipulation is not always apparent to the casual observer. The polling questions are often not disclosed, making it difficult to scrutinize the methodology. This lack of transparency can lead to results that don’t accurately reflect the reality but instead serve the interests of those conducting the poll. It’s a form of disinformation that can be used to shape public opinion rather than measure it.

Just as polling questions can be secretly manipulated to skew results, credit reports can also be influenced by various factors that may not be apparent. The way this information is collected, reported, and interpreted can significantly harm your credit score.

For instance, just as tilted questions can lead to misleading poll results, inaccurate or outdated information on your credit report can negatively affect your credit score. This could be due to errors in reporting from credit bureaus or fraudulent activity, similar to the introduction of implausible options in a poll.

Moreover, the lack of transparency in polling questions parallels the complexity of credit reports algorithms. Consumers are not allowed to fully understand how their actions impact their credit score. Much like how poll respondents may not realize how the framing of a question can influence their answer.

Often you are unaware of an incorrect serious delinquency until you are denied credit and order a full credit report from all the reporting agencies. in this way consumers are disadvantaged without knowing it.

Bad polling practices can obscure the support for a clear winner to make it look like a tie. This is done by adding options that are not plausible. By adding choices that are unlikely or irrelevant, pollsters can dilute support for a particular outcome. For instance, in a political poll, introducing fringe candidates or unlikely scenarios can siphon off votes from a clear winner, making the race appear closer than it actually is.

President: general election :
2024 Polls by
FiveThirtyEight

As consumers of this information, we must remain vigilant and discerning, recognizing that not all polls are created equal and that some may be designed to lead us to a particular conclusion rather than reflect our true opinions.

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